Labor Immigration Law

Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State.  For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.  He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current.   As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate that Mr. Oppenheim has shared his first-hand knowledge of the demand in the employment-based green card categories and has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

The main points are that due to lower than anticipated demand in EB filings, EB-2 India and China cutoff dates may move forward by another 6 months in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin, and then slow down (or even retrogress) over the summer.   The slow demand in EB-1 is expected to continue this year as well.

Observations of the Demand in Employment-based Visa Numbers

Unexpectedly Low EB-2 Usage and Rate of Filings.  The employment-based (EB) visa number usage has been very slow in FY2012; as a result, the Department of State (DOS) is moving the dates forward to see how many cases are out there waiting to be filed.  Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he is relying on USCIS and their estimates of the incoming EB I-485 cases (because 85 to 90% of all EB filings are I-485s filed with USCIS).  It seems that USCIS had anticipated a higher demand — the rate of I-485 adjustment of status (AOS) filings has been only 50% of their estimates.

EB-1 Demand Low.   Mr. Oppenheim assumes low usage of EB-1 numbers again this year.  A “fall-down” of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim’s projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers “spill up” to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.     Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers –  possible reasons are the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1 EA numbers.

EB Visa Bulletin Predictions for 2012

March 2012 Visa Bulletin.   According to Mr. Oppenheim, employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March 2012 Visa Bulletin, very likely by at least a few months.    An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely.    Mr. Oppenheim noted that given current AOS processing times of 4-6 months, filing AOS in March is the last time to get a case possibly approved before the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2012.

Spring, Summer and rest of FY2012. After some movement in the March (and possibly the April 2012 Visa Bulletin), Mr. Oppenheim expects to hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance, as needed and as determined by demand over the summer.  Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data at this time to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients.   Although EB-2 is likely to continue to move forward over the next one or two months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.

Our office has been very active and aggressive in preparing and timely filing I-485 adjustment of status applications for clients who have become “current” over the past few months.   We will continue to be ready to handle the anticipated forward movement in the EB-2 China and India categories.    Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions.  We are also happy to provide a free quote for preparing and filing your I-485 application.  We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

USCIS has issued an alert that a number of key online systems will be unavailable due to system maintenance from Friday, December 2nd at 7pm (EST) until Monday, December 5th at 9am (EST).   As a result, there will be no access or service to the following USCIS online systems and tools:

• Check My Case Status
• Sign-Up for Case Status
• Check Processing Times
• Change of Address Online
• Civil Surgeon Locator
• e-Request
• Office Locator

USCIS has not indicated if and how this outage would affect case updates scheduled to be sent out during this period.   We hope that outgoing case update email alerts would be unaffected; but it is possible that due to the system maintenance USCIS will not issue case alerts as well.

We urge our clients and readers who need to change address (AR-11) online, locate a local office or a civil surgeon or to otherwise interact with one of these tools to do so before the beginning of the outage.

Many of our readers are aware that as of November 22, 2011, USCIS has received a sufficient number of H-1B cap-subject petitions to fill the annual H-1B quota.  All cap-subject new H-1B petitions received by USCIS on or after November 23rd will be rejected.   Throughout the entire H-1B cap season, our office was providing weekly updates to our readers and clients on the status of the H-1B cap and our predictions (based on analyzing the H-1B demand over time) that the H-1B cap would be reached by late November 2011 turned out to be pretty accurate.

Comparison of FY2011 and FY2012 H-1B Cap Seasons

This H-1B cap season lasted approximately two months shorter than last year’s.  Last year’s (fiscal year 2011, FY2011) H-1B cap season lasted until January 26, 2011, when the H-1B quota was reached.  This year, FY2012, the H-1B cap season was two months shorter.  This can be explained in a number of ways, most notably due to the gradual improvement in the U.S. economy and increase in the rate of hiring for the next 6-12 months.  As we saw the rate of H-1B filings over the past few weeks of this H-1B cap season to increase, we expect that as the economy continues to improves over the next couple of quarters, the H-1B demand should pick up and we expect that the new H-1B cap season, to open on April 2, 2012, to be busier than the last one.

Alternatives to H-1B Cap

Now that the H-1B quota has been reached, we are receiving an increasing number of inquiries by both cap-subject employers and prospective employees about the alternatives for work authorization between now and October 1, 2012, when the new fiscal year’s H-1B quota would begin (as a reminder, April 2, 2012 is the earliest a cap-subject H-1B application can be filed).  We describe some of the most common H-1B visa alternatives.  Note that the list is not intended to exhaust all possible visa types and scenarios pursuant to which an employee may be legally employed.  Our goal is to list some of the common options for the benefit of our clients and readers.  We are happy to discuss individual cases as part of our FREE initial consultation.

Cap-Exempt H-1B

A number of employers may qualify to be cap-exempt and are allowed to file for H-1B petition at any time.   A cap-exempt employer is (1) an institution of higher education, (2) related or affiliated to a higher education institution nonprofit entity, or  (3) nonprofit research organization or a governmental research organization.  Please see our cap-exempt H-1B employer guide.   As a result, many educational institutions, non-profit and research organizations may qualify to file cap-exempt H-1Bs.   We are happy to help evaluate whether an employer can qualify to be cap-exempt.

O-1 or P-1 Extraordinary Ability Visas

O-1 and P-1 visas are generally reserved for individuals who have extraordinary ability in the sciences, arts (including the television and motion picture industry), education, business, or athletics.  By definition, not many individuals qualify for one or both of these visa types, but where possible, an application for O-1 and/or P-1 should be prepared in lieu of H-1B.   In addition to being able to obtain work authorization pursuant to these visa types, an O-1 and/or P-1 approval may establish the basis for the subsequent application for an EB-1 category permanent residency.  Please contact us if you would like our help in evaluating your O-1 and/or P-1 visa case.

L-1 Intracompany Transferree

The L-1 visa type allows multinational companies who have presence abroad to transfer their employees from their overseas offices to their U.S. office (or to establish a new U.S. office).  This visa type is a good option for foreign employers seeking to establish or boost their U.S. presence and for foreign nationals currently employed abroad.   Foreign nationals who are currently in the U.S. generally will not qualify for L-1 visa.  An added benefit to the L-1 visa is that family members are entitled to a work authorization pursuant to L-2 status.

E-1/E-2 Treaty Trader or Investor

The E-1/E-2 visas allow nationals of countries with which the U.S. has trade treaties to invest an amount in the U.S. and receive an E-1 (treaty trader) or E-2 (treaty investor) visa.  See a list of treaty countries.

The E-1 treaty trader visa is suitable if the foreign national has a multinational employer who is willing to transfer them, and the company has significant trade between the foreign country and the U.S.  The employee must also have skills which are essential to the operation of the company trade.   Dependents of E-1 visa holder are eligible for work in the U.S.

The E-2 treaty investor allows foreign nationals to invest (preferably) a substantial amount in the U.S. and obtain an E-2 visa to be able to manage and direct their investment.  The amount required for investment generally varies depending on the industry (the so called, proportionality test) with more capital-intensive industries requiring more significant investment for E-2 application.   Dependents of E-2 visa holders are eligible to apply for work authorization.

H-1B Program Changes by Congress Unlikely

While we do not expect Congress to raise the H-1B cap for FY2013, it is nonetheless possible.  There are a number of proposals currently circulating in Congress, some of which aim to increase the H-1B cap.  While none of these proposals have gained momentum at this time, we will be providing updates as soon as there is a likelihood that there will be development on this front.

Wait and File on April 2, 2012 for the FY2013 Cap

For some of our clients, waiting until April 2, 2012 to file a new cap-subject H-1B petition may be the best option.  The H-1B visa type, although subject to some requirements, is a fairly common visa type for which many qualified employees are eligible.    As of now, the FY2013 H-1B cap is expected to be the same as it was for the FY2012 fiscal year – 65,000 H-1B visas (plus 20,000 for holders of U.S. master’s degrees).  However, as the economy starts to improve and employers increase hiring, we do not expect that next year’s H-1B numbers will remain available for as much as 8-9 months, as they did this year.   Accordingly, we urge employees and employers to prepare and file most or all of their H-1B petitions on or about April 2, 2012, to ensure that their petition has the greatest chance to be included in the quota.  Please contact us to start preparing for your FY2013 H-1B cap filing.

USCIS just released the information on the numbers of cap-subject FY2012 H-1Bs filed since April 1.   As of October 28, 2011, USCIS has received approximately 49,200 H-1B petitions counting toward the 65,000 cap (an increase of 3,000 over the previous week).  Similarly, as of October 28, there were 20,000 H-1B visas filed subject to the U.S. Masters cap which has 20,000 limit.

H-1B Quota Trends – Rate of Regular Cap H-1B Filings Increases; H-1B Masters Cap Reached

The numbers, as just reported for the past week, confirm that the rate of filing of new cap-subject H-1B filings is increasing slightly.  Now that the H-1B U.S. Master’s cap has been reached, all H-1B filings (regardless of level of education) will be counted under the regular H-1B cap.   As a result, we expect the average weekly rate of filings to be around 3,000-3,500, compared to 1,000-1,500 previously.     Additionally, we often see a rush of filings towards the end of the cap season as employers realize that the cap is about to close, so we anticipate the rate of filings to increase over the next few weeks.

H-1B Cap Likely to Close in Mid- to Late December 2011 — Last Call for Cap-Subject H-1B Filings

Given an estimated rate of H-1B filings of 3,500 for the next few weeks, and given that there are approximately 15,000 H-1B visa numbers left towards meeting the annual cap, it is likely that the H-1B cap for FY2012 will be reached towards the end of the year — likely in mid- to late December 2011.

Considering the fact that an H-1B petition takes at a minimum 7 to 10 business days to file, we urge all employers and future H-1B workers to start the H-1B filing process as soon as possible.    If you are considering filing a cap-subject H-1B petition as part of the FY2012 quota, please contact us.   We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim.  Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State.  For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.  He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current.   As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr. Oppenheim has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points

EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins.  A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012.   EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected.   Family-based dates will advance gradually.

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children).  As a result, and in recognition of the fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for and applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3 visa numbers are expected to remain oversubscribed and to move slowly forward.

However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months.

With respect to family-based cases, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the demand, especially in the FB2 category has exceeded his expectations after the sharp forward movement at the end of 2010.   This sharp forward movement has generated a significant demand for FB2 preference category visas and he has had to retrogress significantly in order to control demand.   He indicated that slow forward movement is expected.

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.  These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months.  Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins.  It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further.   Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins.     Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012.   He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to move gradually slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.

EB-3 China.  This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3 weeks per month for the next few months.

EB-3 India.  Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very slow.    This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so).   This is mainly caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available.   Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move forward.

EB-3 India and China – 70 Years Wait for Green Card?

There have been a number of recent articles and comments on the possibility that Indian and Chinese applicants who are in the EB-3 category may be facing a 70-year wait to obtain a visa number.   Mr. Oppenheim’s reaction:  that this is “plausible”.

As a background, according to a recent report, since the majority of employment-based green card filings are from India and China, the current per-country limit (which restricts the number of green cards awarded to any country to 7% of the total) places a ceiling on how many EB-3 green cards can be approved every year.   For Indians, the limit of EB-3 green cards that can be issued every year is fewer than 3,000.    The estimate (generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim) of the pending EB-3 cases is somewhere around 210,000 (primary EB-3 candidates plus family members).   As a result, a simple calculation shows that it may take around 70 years for an EB-3 India candidate to obtain a green card.

Unfortunately, the estimates were generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim who, while not specifically endorsing the 70-year wait period, confirmed that EB-3 India will be very slow going forward due to very heavy demand.  EB-3 China is in a very similar situation, even though the demand numbers are proportionally lower.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was also able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of the family-based visa numbers over the next few months.  Unlike the employment-based visa numbers, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that the family-based visa numbers are likely to be fairly predictable.

FB 2A.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, this family-based category has shown a high demand as a result of the sudden forward movement at the end of 2010 and, as a result, had to be retrogressed.   Now that the demand is fairly predictable, a gradual forward movement of 3-6 weeks per month is to be expected.

FB 2B and FB3.  Forward movement in the 2B category is expected to be 1-2 weeks per month.

FB4.   Forward movement of about one month per month is to be expected.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients.   Although EB-2 is likely to move forward significantly over the next few months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.

Our office is prepared to handle the anticipated significant forward movement in the EB-2 China and India categories.    Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions.  We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.