We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current.   As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate that Mr. Oppenheim has shared his first-hand knowledge of the demand in the employment-based green card categories and has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

The main points are that due to lower than anticipated demand in EB filings, EB-2 India and China cutoff dates may move forward by another 6 months in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin, and then slow down (or even retrogress) over the summer.   The slow demand in EB-1 is expected to continue this year as well.

Observations of the Demand in Employment-based Visa Numbers

Unexpectedly Low EB-2 Usage and Rate of Filings.  The employment-based (EB) visa number usage has been very slow in FY2012; as a result, the Department of State (DOS) is moving the dates forward to see how many cases are out there waiting to be filed.  Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he is relying on USCIS and their estimates of the incoming EB I-485 cases (because 85 to 90% of all EB filings are I-485s filed with USCIS).  It seems that USCIS had anticipated a higher demand — the rate of I-485 adjustment of status (AOS) filings has been only 50% of their estimates.

EB-1 Demand Low.   Mr. Oppenheim assumes low usage of EB-1 numbers again this year.  A “fall-down” of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim’s projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers “spill up” to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.     Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers –  possible reasons are the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1 EA numbers.

EB Visa Bulletin Predictions for 2012

March 2012 Visa Bulletin.   According to Mr. Oppenheim, employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March 2012 Visa Bulletin, very likely by at least a few months.    An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely.    Mr. Oppenheim noted that given current AOS processing times of 4-6 months, filing AOS in March is the last time to get a case possibly approved before the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2012.

Spring, Summer and rest of FY2012. After some movement in the March (and possibly the April 2012 Visa Bulletin), Mr. Oppenheim expects to hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance, as needed and as determined by demand over the summer.  Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data at this time to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients.   Although EB-2 is likely to continue to move forward over the next one or two months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.

Our office has been very active and aggressive in preparing and timely filing I-485 adjustment of status applications for clients who have become “current” over the past few months.   We will continue to be ready to handle the anticipated forward movement in the EB-2 China and India categories.    Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions.  We are also happy to provide a free quote for preparing and filing your I-485 application.  We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current.   As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr. Oppenheim has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points

EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins.  A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012.   EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected.   Family-based dates will advance gradually.

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children).  As a result, and in recognition of the fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for and applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3 visa numbers are expected to remain oversubscribed and to move slowly forward.

However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months.

With respect to family-based cases, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the demand, especially in the FB2 category has exceeded his expectations after the sharp forward movement at the end of 2010.   This sharp forward movement has generated a significant demand for FB2 preference category visas and he has had to retrogress significantly in order to control demand.   He indicated that slow forward movement is expected.

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.  These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months.  Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins.  It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further.   Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins.     Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012.   He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to move gradually slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.

EB-3 China.  This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3 weeks per month for the next few months.

EB-3 India.  Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very slow.    This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so).   This is mainly caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available.   Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move forward.

EB-3 India and China – 70 Years Wait for Green Card?

There have been a number of recent articles and comments on the possibility that Indian and Chinese applicants who are in the EB-3 category may be facing a 70-year wait to obtain a visa number.   Mr. Oppenheim’s reaction:  that this is “plausible”.

As a background, according to a recent report, since the majority of employment-based green card filings are from India and China, the current per-country limit (which restricts the number of green cards awarded to any country to 7% of the total) places a ceiling on how many EB-3 green cards can be approved every year.   For Indians, the limit of EB-3 green cards that can be issued every year is fewer than 3,000.    The estimate (generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim) of the pending EB-3 cases is somewhere around 210,000 (primary EB-3 candidates plus family members).   As a result, a simple calculation shows that it may take around 70 years for an EB-3 India candidate to obtain a green card.

Unfortunately, the estimates were generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim who, while not specifically endorsing the 70-year wait period, confirmed that EB-3 India will be very slow going forward due to very heavy demand.  EB-3 China is in a very similar situation, even though the demand numbers are proportionally lower.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was also able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of the family-based visa numbers over the next few months.  Unlike the employment-based visa numbers, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that the family-based visa numbers are likely to be fairly predictable.

FB 2A.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, this family-based category has shown a high demand as a result of the sudden forward movement at the end of 2010 and, as a result, had to be retrogressed.   Now that the demand is fairly predictable, a gradual forward movement of 3-6 weeks per month is to be expected.

FB 2B and FB3.  Forward movement in the 2B category is expected to be 1-2 weeks per month.

FB4.   Forward movement of about one month per month is to be expected.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients.   Although EB-2 is likely to move forward significantly over the next few months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.

Our office is prepared to handle the anticipated significant forward movement in the EB-2 China and India categories.    Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions.  We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

The U.S. State Department just released the May 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the eighth Visa Bulletin for the FY2011 fiscal year.    The major headline in the upcoming month’s bulletin is the forward movement in EB-2 India (after eight months of no movement) and the continued (but slow) slow forward movement in FB2A (after few significant backward movements).

Summary of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 China moves forward by one (1) week to August 1, 2006, while EB-2 India moves forward (for the first time in 8 months) by seven (7) weeks to July 1, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by one (1) months to August 22, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by six (6) weeks to April 15, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by one (1) week to April 15, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by four (4) months to September 8, 2004.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by six (6) weeks to September 8, 2003 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.  It moves forward by one  (1) week to April 15, 2002 for India .

Summary of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at May 1, 2004.  FB1 Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks to March 1, 1993.  FB1 Philippines moves forward by three and a half (3.5) months to July 15, 1995.
• FB2A moves forward by nine (9) weeks to June 8, 2007 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by five (5) months to January 1, 2007.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remain (again) unchanged at April 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks to August 1, 1992.  FB2B FB2B Philippines moves forward by three (3) months to March 1, 2000.

Slow Movement  for Employment-based Petitions, Except EB-2 India; No (or Minor) Movement in Family-based Priority Dates

The slow forward movement across many employment categories continues, as expected, although we have started seeing notable movement in the EB-2 India category after eight months of no activity.  The EB-2 India movement is due to the carryover of visa numbers from the EB-1 category (also see note below).    Unfortunately, EB-3 India moved forward by only one  week (in comparison to the last two visa bulletins when it advanced by three weeks per month).

We continue to see the FB2A category move forward (by two months), after the significant retrogression over the past several months.  We wish to reiterate that the forward movement in FB2A is expected to be slow over the next  few months, according to indications from the State Department.   Unfortunately, due to strong demand, the FB1 category remains unchanged, after it retrogressed by 8 months last month.  This is due to heavy demand in the FB1 category which is expected to continue and further lack of movement (or backward movement) in FB1 is possible.

Prediction for Visa Number Availability for the Upcoming Months

Employment-Based.

According to the State Department, demand in the EB-1 category has been “extremely low” and, as a result, EB-1 is expected to remain current.  Similarly, EB-2 ROW is expected to remain current, but the demand in EB-2 India and EB-2 China is expected to continue to weigh on these two categories.   The State Department’s “best case scenario” for the upcoming few months is as follows (the estimates below are per month):

• EB-2 China – none to three weeks expected through July; August/September estimate not possible at this time;
• EB-2 India – one or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable;  August/September estimate not possible at this time;
• EB-3 ROW – three to six weeks;
• EB-3 China – one to three weeks;
• EB-3 India – none to two weeks;
• EB-3 Mexico – some forward movement, but difficult to predict; and
• EB-3 Philippines – three to six weeks.

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the May 2011 Visa Bulletin.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions on when a particular priority date may become current.

Low EB-1 Demand to Cause Visa Number Spillover to EB-2

USCIS has reported that the demand for EB-1 visa numbers has dropped significantly since October 1, 2010.   As a result, the planned visa number demand in this category can be adjusted downwards.  By doing this, the unused EB-1 numbers can be allocated to other categories.  This is Mr. Oppenheim’s statement:

“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

EB-2 India Expected to Move Forward (Substantially?) in the May 2011 Visa Bulletin

Based on Mr. Oppenheim’s comments, it is expected that the EB-2 India category will move forward in the May 2011 Visa Bulletin (please see our Visa Bulletin topic page where updates are posted immediately).  This should be a welcome development for the thousands of EB-2 India filers who have been waiting for 8 months now without any movement in this category.   While we cannot estimate by how much EB-2 India will advance, we hope that the move would be substantial, based on the 12,000 available visa numbers mentioned by Mr. Oppenheim.

Porting of EB-3 India to EB-2 India to Continue — Heavy Demand in EB-2 Expected

Our office has been advising over the past couple of years, and we continue to do so, that all EB-3 India filers who are now eligible to port their priority dates into EB-2 to do so.   In many cases porting is extremely helpful in advancing one’s green card application substantially, especially when the EB-3 priority date, as ported to EB-2 becomes current, and especially considering a possible significant forward movement in EB-2 India.   Please contact us if we can provide analysis of your ability to port your EB-3 priority date into EB-2.

EB-2 India Expected Forward Movement to Cause Increase in I-485 Filings and Interfilings

We also expect the EB-2 India forward priority date movement to cause an increase in I-485 adjustment of status filings for both primary beneficiaries or for family members who have not been able to file I-485 previously (most often during the summer of 2007).

Additionally, many I-485s remain pending and “connected” to I-140s which reflect an older EB-3 priority date which is not current.  If a subsequent EB-2 I-140 has been filed and if the earlier EB-3 priority date has been ported into the new I-140, an “interfiling” may be needed to notify USCIS and have them “connect” the pending I-485 with the new, and current, EB-2 I-140.

Please contact our office if we can help you prepare and file your I-485 application or if you need assistance with interfiling your pending I-485 to a new and (soon to be) current EB-2 I-140.   We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to obtain alerts of related news and developments.

The U.S. State Department just released the April 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the seventh Visa Bulletin for the FY2011 fiscal year.    The major headline in the upcoming month’s bulletin is the slow forward movement in FB2A (after few significant backward movements), the significant retrogression in the FB1 preference visa numbers, accompanied by the continued slow forward movement across the employment-based categories.

Summary of the April 2011 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the April 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 China moves forward by two (2) weeks to July 22, 2006, while EB-2 India remains (again, for eight consecutive months) unchanged at May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to July 22, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by five (5) weeks to March 1, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by three (3) weeks to April 8, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by four (4) months to May 8, 2004.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by five (5) weeks to July 22, 2003 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks to April 8, 2002 for India .

Summary of the April 2011 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the April 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India move backwards by eight (8) months to May 1, 2004.  FB1 Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks to February 15, 1993.  FB1 Philippines moves forward by three and a half (3.5) months to April 1, 1995.
• FB2A moves forward by four (4) months to April 1, 2007 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) months to July 1, 2006.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remain unchanged at April 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico also remains unchanged at July 15, 1992.  FB2B FB2B Philippines moves forward by four (2) months to December 1, 1999.

Slow Movement  for Employment-based Petitions, Retrogression (for some) or Minor Movement in Family-based Priority Dates

The slow forward movement across many employment categories continues, as expected, although the movement in the employment-based categories may be very disappointing to many, especially in the the EB-2 India category which did not move at all this month, for a 8 consecutive months.  The slightly positive news is that EB-3 India moved forward by three weeks (in continuation of last month’s forward movement of three weeks).

We have finally seen the FB2A category move forward by four months, after the significant retrogression over the past few months.  We wish to reiterate that the forward movement in FB2A is expected to be slow over the next  few months, according to indications from the State Department.   Unfortunately, due to strong demand, the FB1 category retrogresses by 8 months for many regions.   This is due to heavy demand in the FB1 category which is expected to continue and further backward movements in FB1 are possible.

Further Updates and News

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the April 2011 Visa Bulletin.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions on when a particular priority date may become current.

The U.S. State Department just released the March 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the sixth Visa Bulletin for the FY2011 fiscal year.    The major headline in the upcoming month’s bulletin is the major (additional) retrogression in family-based second A preference visa numbers, accompanied by the continued slow forward movement across the employment-based categories.  The retrogression in family-based categories is a surprise following recent comments by the State Department that family-based categories (especially 2A) should continue to move forward.

Summary of the March 2011 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the March 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 China moves forward by only one (1) week to July 8, 2006, while EB-2 India remains (again, for a number of consecutive months) unchanged at May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) months to July 1, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by three (3) weeks to January 22, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by three (3) weeks to March 15, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by six (6) months to August 8, 2004.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China and at May 1, 2003 for Mexico.   It moves forward by six (6) weeks to June 15, 2003 for ROW and Philippines.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks to March 15, 2002 for India .

Summary of the March 2011 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the March 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at January 1, 2005.  FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to February 1, 1993.  FB1 Philippines moves forward by hour and a half (4.5) months to December 15, 1994.
• FB2A retrogresses even further for ROW, China, India and Philippines.  It goes back by one (1) year to January 1, 2007.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by nine (9) months to January 1, 2006.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remain unchanged at April 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks to July 15, 1992 and FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to August 1, 1999.

Slow Movement  for Employment-based Petitions, Retrogression (for some) or Minor Movement in Family-based Priority Dates

The slow forward movement across many employment categories continues, as expected, although the movement in the employment-based categories may be very disappointing to many, especially in the the EB-2 India category which did not move at all this month, for a number of consecutive months.  The slightly positive news is that EB-3 India moved forward by three weeks (in continuation of last month’s forward movement of three weeks).

What may come as an additional negative surprise is the retrogression in the FB2A categories for ROW, China and India.  After the surprising January 2011 Visa Bulletin, when the priority dates for FB2A retrogressed by more than two years back to 2008, the March Visa Bulletin moves them back even further by one more year — to January 1, 2007.

What Are the Reasons for the FB2A Category Additional Significant Retrogression?

Simply stated, the reason for the retrogression is high demand, caused by the prompt forward movement of family-based categories over the past months.   The January 2011 Visa Bulletin showed a significant retrogression in the FB2A category, following a number of months of forward movement.  Those past forward movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand received in recent months.   This, according to the State Department, has required the retrogression of many Family preference cut-off dates for January 2011 and for March 2011 in an effort to hold number use within the various numerical limits.  Please see our analysis of the reasons behind the retrogression and the lack of movement in the FB2A category

According to the State Department, the effect of the last three months’ retrogression in this category will slow down the demand of filings in the FB2A category.  As a result, it is expected that this category will see a slow forward movement in the coming months.

Further Updates and News

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the March 2011 Visa Bulletin.

How Can I Determine My Place in the AOS Queue?

An AOS application’s preference category, priority date, and country of origin determine its place in line for a visa.  The earlier your priority date is, the closer you are to the front of the line.     The report displays the total number of pending adjustment of status applications, per preference classification. The report shows how many pending adjustment of status (green card) applications in each preference classification have priority dates in a given month and year.  You can use this chart to determine how many applicants in your preference classification have priority dates in the same month and year as your own.  Also, you can determine how many applicants in your preference classification are ahead of you in line for a visa number by adding together the number of cases with an earlier priority date than your own.

Ensure That You Use The Report Relevant to Your AOS

All applicants for an employment-based green card may use the pending Form I-485 report to determine their place in line for a visa.  Because certain countries experience higher demand than others, applicants in these “oversubscribed” countries may move forward in line more slowly than applicants in countries experiencing less demand.  In other words, in order to obtain a visa, applicants in oversubscribed countries may need to have earlier priority dates than applicants in countries experiencing less demand.  Applicants in oversubscribed countries may therefore want to also refer to the report for their specific country of chargeability to determine where they stand in line with other applicants from that country.

Conclusion

We are pleased with USCIS’ efforts to provide more transparency by compiling and releasing the I-485 inventory data.  While we realize that for some of our clients and readers the inventory information will show that there is still a significant wait, the fact that AOS applicants can obtain some empirical estimate of their relative place in the processing queue is important.

The U.S. State Department just released the February 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the fifth Visa Bulletin for the FY2011 fiscal year and first for the calendar year.    The major headline in the upcoming month’s bulletin is the major retrogression in family-based visa numbers, accompanied by the continued slow forward movement across the employment-based categories.  The retrogression in family-based categories is a surprise following recent comments by the State Department that family-based categories (especially 2A) should continue to move forward.

Summary of the February 2011 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the February 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 China moves forward by only one (1) week to July 1, 2006, while EB-2 India remains (again, for a number of consecutive months) unchanged at May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by only one (1) week to April 1, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to January 1, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by three (3) weeks to February 22, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by almost three (3) months to July 8, 2003 and EB-3 Philippines moves forward by one (1) week to April 1, 2005.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China.   It moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 2003 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks to February 22, 2002 for India .

Summary of the February 2011 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the February 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at January 1, 2005.  FB1 Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks to January 22, 1993.  FB1 Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to August 1, 1994.
• FB2A remains unchanged across the board:  ROW, China, India and Philippines are unchanged January 1, 2008;  Mexico is also unchanged at April 1, 2005.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remain unchanged at April 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to July 1, 1992 and FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) weeks to June 1, 1999.

Slow Movement  for Employment-based Petitions and No (or Small) Change in Family-based Priority Dates

The slow forward movement across many employment categories continues, as expected, although the movement in the employment-based categories may be very disappointing to many, especially in the the EB-2 India category which did not move at all this month, for a number of consecutive months.  The slightly positive news is that EB-3 India moved forward by three weeks (compared to only one week in the prior month).

As expected this month, after the surprising January 2011 Visa Bulletin, the family-based second preference category (FB2A) remains unchanged.  Prior to the January 2011 Visa Bulletin, it was widely expected that FB2A would  continue to move forward, and to even  be current by the February 2011 Visa Bulletin (see our comments on Charles Oppenheim’s predictions from September 2010).  However, FB2A retrogressed significantly from August 2010 to January 2008 in the January 2011 Visa Bulletin last month, and this month the FB2A category remains unchanged.

What Are the Reasons for the FB2A Category Lack of Forward Movement?

Simply stated, the reason for the retrogression is high demand, caused by the prompt forward movement of family-based categories over the past months.   Last month’s Visa Bulletin showed a significant retrogression in the FB2A category, following a number of months of forward movement.  Those past forward movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand received in recent months.   This, according to the State Department, has required the retrogression of many Family preference cut-off dates for January 2011 in an effort to hold number use within the various numerical limits.

Unfortunately, according to the State Department, further retrogressions (or lack of movement) cannot be ruled out should demand continue at the current levels.  Please see our analysis of the reasons behind the retrogression and the lack of movement in the FB2A category.

Further Updates and News

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the February 2011 Visa Bulletin.

Retrogression in Family-based Preference Categories

The January 2011 Visa Bulletin has the following developments with respect to family-based categories:

• FB1 ROW, China and India retrogress and go back by more than thirteen (13) months to January 1, 2005.  FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to January 8, 1993.
• FB2A ROW, China, India and Philippines retrogress and go back by 32 months from August 1, 2010 to January 1, 2008.  This is the most significant development this month.
• FB2B ROW, China and India retrogress and go back by approximately twenty-two (22) months to April 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at June 22, 1992 and FB2B Philippines moves backwards by almost 9 months to May 15, 1999.

Explanation of the Retrogression for Family-based Preference Categories

The demand for visa numbers in the family-sponsored preference categories was very low from early 2009 through September 2010.   Accordingly, the cut-off dates for most family preference categories were advanced at a rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so the annual numerical limits could be fully utilized.  In fact, during our September 23, 2010 meeting with Charles Oppenheim,  all indications were that the family-based categories, especially FB2A, would continue moving forward.   The FB2A category was expected to be “close to current” in the February 2011 bulletin.

However, as a result of the accelerated level of demand over the last few months, the State Department has retrogressed most of the worldwide cut-off dates effective January 1, 2011.   Unfortunately, and more importantly, the State Department has indicated that  it is unlikely these categories will recover for some time since demand for family-sponsored preference categories does not appear to be subsiding.

Conclusion

Unfortunately, the sudden retrogression may alter the immigration plans for many applicants who were hoping to be able to file either for consular processing via NVC (to process abroad) or to adjust status I-485 (from within the U.S.).  Considering all indications of slow forward movement (and even further possible retrogressions), we encourage applicants to seek alternative immigration avenues, at least in the short-term.

We have a number of consultation options and are happy to assist our current and new clients in evaluating their options.  Also, if you already have not, we invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration bulletin so that you can receive news and updates on this and related topics.

The U.S. State Department just released the January 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the fourth Visa Bulletin for the FY2011 fiscal year and first for the calendar year.    The major headline in the upcoming month’s bulletin is the major retrogression in family-based visa numbers, accompanied by the continued slow forward movement across the employment-based categories.  The retrogression in family-based categories is a surprise following recent comments by the State Department that family-based categories (especially 2A) should continue to move forward.

Summary of the January 2011 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the January 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 China moves forward by two (2) weeks to June  22, 2006, while EB-2 India remains (again, for a number of consecutive months) unchanged at May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by one (1) month to March 22, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by one (1) week to December 15, 2003, while EB-3 India  moves forward by also one (1) week to February 1, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by 9.5 months to April 15, 2003 and EB-3 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to March 22, 2005.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for ROW and China and Philippines.  It moves forward by one (1) week to February 1, 2002 for India.  Mexico moves forward by 9.5 months to April 15, 2003.

Summary of the January 2011 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the January 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India retrogress and go back by more than thirteen (13) months to January 1, 2005.  FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to January 8, 1993.
• FB2A ROW, China, India and Philippines retrogress and go back by 32 months from August 1, 2010 to January 1, 2008.  This is the most significant development this month.
• FB2B ROW, China and India retrogress and go back by approximately twenty-two (22) months to April 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at June 22, 1992 and FB2B Philippines moves backwards by almost 9 months to May 15, 1999.

Slow Movement  for Employment-based Petitions and Significant Backwards Movement in Family-based Priority Dates

The slow forward movement across many employment categories continues, as expected, although the movement in the employment-based categories may be very disappointing to many, especially in the the EB-2 India category which did not move at all this month (EB-3 India moved forward by only a week).

However, the most notable and significant movement was across the family-based preference categories.  The FB-2A category, which was widely expected to continue to move forward, and to even  be current by the February 2011 Visa Bulletin (see our comments on Charles Oppenheim’s predictions from September 2010) has retrogressed significantly from August 2010 to January 2008.

What Are the Reasons for the FB Category Retrogression?

Simply stated, the reason for the retrogression is high demand, caused by the prompt forward movement of family-based categories over the past months.   Those past forward movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand received in recent months.   This, according to the State Department, has required the retrogression of many Family preference cut-off dates for January 2011 in an effort to hold number use within the various numerical limits.   Unfortunately, according to the State Department, further retrogressions cannot be ruled out should demand continue at the current levels.

Family-based Applicants with Current Priority Dates Should File Adjustment of Status (I-485) Applications by the End of December 2010

Given the retrogression in family-based preference categories, those who have approved (or pending) I-130 petitions, who are otherwise eligible to file adjustment of status (I-485) application and whose priority dates will be affected by the retrogression in the family-based categories should consider filing their I-485 adjustments before the end of December 2010.  Please contact us immediately if we can help you prepare your I-485 application.

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the January 2011 Visa Bulletin.

Summary of the December 2010 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the December 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 China moves forward by one (1) week to June 8, 2006, while EB-2 India remains (again, for a number of consecutive months) unchanged at May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by one (1) month to February 22, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to December 8, 2003, while EB-3 India  remains unchanged at January 22, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by fourteen (14) months to July 1, 2002 and EB-3 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to February 22, 2005.
• The “other worker” category moves forward by three (3) weeks to April 22, 2003 for ROW and China and Philippines.  It remains unchanged at January 22, 2002 for India.  Mexico moves forward by fourteen (14) months July 1, 2002.

Summary of the December 2010 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the December 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China, India and Philippines remain unchanged at February 15, 2006.  FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to January 1, 1993.
• FB2A ROW, China, India and Philippines move forward by two (2) months to August 1, 2010, while FB2A Mexico remains unchanged at March 1, 2010.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remain unchanged at June 1, 2005.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at June 22, 1992 and FB2B Philippines moves backwards by more than two years to March 1, 2000.

Slow Movement  for Employment-based Petitions and Notable Forward Movement in Family-based Petitions

The forward movement across many employment and family-based categories continues, although the movement in the employment-based categories may be very disappointing to many, especially in the the India category which did not move at all this month.   The December 2010 movement confirms the observations and the predictions which we published on September 23 after our meeting with Charles Oppenheim.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, the employment-based categories are expected to inch forward slowly — often by one or two weeks per month — while the family-based categories, especially FB2A is expected to make significant forward movement.

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the December 2010 Visa Bulletin.

Summary of the November 2010 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the November 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by only one (1) week to June 1, 2006, while EB-2 India remains (again) unchanged at May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by two (2) weeks to January 22, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to November 22, 2003, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to January 22, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico is now available at May 1, 2001 and EB-3 Philippines moves forward by two  (2) weeks to January 22, 2005.
• The “other worker” category moves forward by one (1) months to April 1, 2003 for ROW and China and moves forward by one (1) week to January 22, 2002 for India.  Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 2001 and the Philippines moves forward by one (1) week to April 1, 2003.

Summary of the November 2010 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the November 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at February 15, 2006.
• FB2A ROW, China, India and Philippines move forward by two (2) months to June 1, 2010, while FB2A Mexico moves forward by two (2) months to March 1, 2010.
• FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) months to June 1, 2005, while FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at June 22, 1992.

Slow Movement  for Employment-based Petitions and Notable Forward Movement in Family-based Petitions

The forward movement across many employment and family-based categories continues, although the movement in the employment-based categories may be very disappointing to many, especially in the India and China categories.   The November 2010 movement confirms the observations and the predictions which we published on September 23 after our meeting with Charles Oppenheim.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, the employment-based categories are expected to inch forward slowly — often by one or two weeks per month — while the family-based categories, especially FB2A is expected to make significant forward movement.

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current.   As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr. Oppenheim has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates.

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim noted that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is larger than previously expected (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children).  As a result, and in recognition of the fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for and applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the employment-based visa numbers are expected to remain oversubscribed and to move slowly forward.

With respect to family-based cases, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the demand, especially in the FB2 category has been much lower than anticipated and as a result the FB2 category has noted significant forward movement over the past few months and that this aggressive forward movement is expected to continue.   Mr. Oppenheim that the FB2A forward movement is unprecedented and provides a rare opportunity to file family-based green card applications

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to move very slightly forward or to remain unchanged in the November 2010 visa bulletin.  The reason is the high number of applications waiting for a visa number in this category.

EB-3 China and EB-2 China.  These two categories are expected to move slowly over the next few months – by one or two weeks at a time for the next few visa bulletins.

EB-3 India.  Similarly, this category is expected to move very slowly over the next few visa bulletins — perhaps by one or two weeks at a time.

EB-2 India. This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a week or so) in the short-term.  This is mainly caused by the fact that many EB-3 India applicants (there are approximately 60,000 EB-3 India pending cases) are “porting” their priority dates into the EB-2 India category and are thus taking visa numbers.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was also able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of the family-based visa numbers over the next few months.  Unlike the employment-based visa numbers, which are expected to advance very slowly over the next few months, the family-based visa numbers, especially in the 2A category are expected to continue to advance consistently and relatively quickly.

FB 2A.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, this family-based category has shown a very low demand over the past months; accordingly, Mr. Oppenheim expects that the 2A category (spouses and children of permanent residents) will continue to move forward aggressively and by the February 2011 visa bulletin, this category may be current or close to being current.

FB 2B.  Similarly, movement in the 2B category has been faster than anticipated due to low demand; accordingly faster forward movement in this category is also expected.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  Although our employment-based clients may be disappointed by the slow forward movement which is expected, our family-based clients should consider preparing and filing family-based applications, especially in the FB2A and FB2B categories which are expected to note significant forward movement in the near future.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions.  We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.

Summary of the October 2010 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the October 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by only two (2) weeks to May 22, 2006, while EB-2 India remains unchanged at May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by three (3) weeks to January 8, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by three (3) weeks to November 8, 2003, while EB-3 India  moves forward by two (2) weeks to January 15, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico is now available at April 22, 2001 and EB-3 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to January 8, 2005.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at March 22, 2003 for ROW and China and moves forward by two weeks to January 15, 2002 for India.  Mexico is now available at April 22, 2001 and the Philippines remains unchanged at March 22, 2003.

Summary of the October 2010 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the October 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India move forward by six (6) weeks to February 15, 2006, while FB1 Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks only to December 15, 1992.
• FB2A ROW, China, India and Philippines move forward by four (4) months to April 1, 2010, while FB2A Mexico moves forward by one year to January 1, 2010.
• FB2B ROW, China and India move forward four (4) months to April 1, 2005, while FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to June 22, 1992.

Forward Movement Continues

The forward movement across many employment and family-based categories continues.  With respect to employment-based petitions, however, the forward movement is fairly small, often only by one or two weeks.  The forward movement in family-based petitions is notable in many cases – four months for many categories.   It is early to make predictions about the movement of the visa numbers over the next fiscal year solely on the basis of the first Visa Bulletin for FY2011.  A positive development, however, is the continued forward movement, albeit small for some categories.

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.

Summary of the September 2010 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the September 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by slightly over two (2) months to May 8, 2006, EB-2 India also moves forward by two (2) months from March 1, 2006 to May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by six and a half (6.5) months to December 15, 2004, EB-3 China  moves forward by one (1) month to October 22, 2003, while EB-3 India  remains unchanged.  EB-3 Mexico remains unavailable.
• The “other worker” category moves forward by a few months, to March 22, 2003 for ROW and China remains unchanged at January 1, 2002 for India.

Substantial Forward Movement Continues

The notable forward movement in EB-2 and some EB-3 categories continues in this month’s visa bulletin as well.   This significant movement is due to the fact that there are some visa numbers available from other countries have not been reached yet and such countries’ per-country limit has not been reached.  As a result, as we are getting close to the end of the fiscal year, and after taking the worldwide demand into account, the State Department is attempting to allocate all of the available visa numbers which, if not allocated, may remain unused during the fiscal year.

Forward Movement Is Temporary

We wish to reiterate that the substantial forward movement  over the past three visa bulletins does not indicate a trend; instead, the last three visa bulletins’ forward movement was to ensure that no available visa numbers remain unused due to poor allocation of the unused numbers.  We expect that there be some retrogression over the next 1-3 months.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or if we can help you prepare and file your I-485 adjustment application, should your priority date become current.

Summary of the August 2010 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the August 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by slightly over three (3) months to March 1, 2006, EB-2 India moves forward by five (5) months from October 1, 2005 to March 1, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by nine and a half months (9.5) months to June 1, 2004, EB-3 China  moves forward by slightly over one (1) month to September 22, 2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by slightly over one (1) month to January 1, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico remains unavailable.
• The “other worker” category moves forward by a few months, to May 15, 2002 for ROW and China and to January 1, 2002 for India.

Substantial Forward Movement Continues

The notable forward movement in EB-2 and some EB-3 categories continues in this month’s visa bulletin as well.   This significant movement is due to the fact that there are some visa numbers available from other countries have not been reached yet and such countries’ per-country limit has not been reached.  As a result, as we are getting close to the end of the fiscal year, and after taking the worldwide demand into account, the State Department has determined only 8,100 of the total available EB-2 preference numbers would be used in that quarter.   In this case, the unused 3,500 numbers could then be made available to China-mainland born and India regardless of their per-country limits.

Forward Movement Is Temporary

Note that the substantial forward movement  does not indicate a trend; instead, the last two visa bulletins’ forward movement was to ensure that no available visa numbers remain unused due to poor allocation of the unused numbers.  We expect that there be some retrogression over the next 1-3 months.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or if we can help you prepare and file your I-485 adjustment application, should your priority date become current.

Summary of the July 2010 Visa Bulletin

Below is a summary of the July 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China remains unchanged at November 22, 2005, and, most notably, EB-2 India moves forward by ten (10) months from February 1, 2005 to October 1, 2005.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost two (2) months to August 15, 2003, EB-3 China also moves forward by almost two (2) months to August 15, 2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) month to November 22, 2001.  EB-3 Mexico remains unavailable.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001 with the exception of Mexico which is  unavailable.

Finally Movement in EB-2 India

Previously we wrote about the lack of movement in the EB-2 India category for the past four months.  Finally, there is a substantial forward movement in EB-2 India which should benefit at least some of our clients and readers.  Please do not hesitate us if you have any questions or if we can help you prepare and file your I-485 adjustment application.

The State Department added another country to the list of oversubscribed countries – Dominican Republic.  This means that for all family and employment-based categories, there is now a category for the Dominican Republic, in addition to China (mainland-born), India, Mexico and the Philippines.

Summary of the June 2010 Visa Bulletin

Below is a summary of the June 2010 Visa Bulletin:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by one (2) months to November 22, 2005, and EB-2 India remains unchanged at February 1, 2005.  This is the third month in a row when EB-2 India has remained unchanged.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost two (2) months to June 22, 2003, EB-3 China moves forward also by two (2) months to June 22,  2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by three (3) weeks to October 22, 2001.  EB-3 Mexico remains unavailable.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001 with the exception of Mexico which is now unavailable.

Why Does EB-2 India Not Move?

Our readers and clients have asked us what is the cause of the lack of movement in the EB-2 India category.  Over the past few years, with the severe retrogression of EB-3 India, many Indian nationals have been able to start and obtain an approval of a new I-140 under the EB-2 category.  Our office has handled a number of such EB-3 to EB-2 “upgrade” cases.  As a result, many of the EB-3 India applicants are now EB-2 India applicants, resulting in delay in the movement of EB-2 India priority dates.   We would be happy to analyze your EB-3 case and help you if you can “port” it to EB-2 – please contact us for a free initial consultation.

Here is a summary of the May 2010 Visa Bulletin:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by one (1) month to September 22, 2005, and EB-2 India remains unchanged at February 1, 2005.  This is the second month in a row when EB-2 India has remained unchanged.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost three (3) months to April 22, 2003, EB-3 China moves forward also by almost (3) months to April 22,  2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by three (3) weeks to October 1, 2001.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001 with the exception of Mexico which is now unavailable.

Here is a summary of the April 2010 Visa Bulletin:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to August 22, 2005, and EB-2 India remains unchanged at February 1, 2005.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost fix (6) weeks to February 1, 2003, EB-3 China moves forward also by six (6) weeks to February 1, 2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by over two (2) months to September 8, 2001.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001.

Here is a summary of the March 2010 Visa Bulletin:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 8, 2005, and EB-2 India, moves forward by only one (1) week to February 1, 2005.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost three (3) months to December 15, 2002, EB-3 China moves forward by almost three (3) months also to December 15, 2002, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to July 1, 2001.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001.

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by three (3) weeks to May 22, 2005, and EB-2 India, again, remains unchanged at January 22, 2005.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost two (2) months to September 22, 2002, EB-3 China moves forward by almost two (2) months also to September 22, 2002, while EB-3 India remains unchanged.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001.

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by one (1) month to May 1, 2005, and EB-2 India remains unchanged at January 22, 2005.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by two (2) months to August 1, 2002, EB-3 China moves forward by two (2) months to August 1, 2002, while EB-3 India moves forward by almost two (2) months to June 22, 2001.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001, except for India which moves forward by one month to June 1, 2001.

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remain unchanged – EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China remains unchanged at April 1, 2005 and EB-2 India remains at January 22, 2005.
• EB-3 ROW remains unchanged at June 1, 2002, EB-3 China remains unchanged at June 1, 2002, while EB-3 India moves forward by one week to May 1, 2001.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001, except for India which moves forward by one week to May 1, 2001.

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 China moves forward by a week to April 1, 2005 while EB-2 ROW remains current and EB-2 India remains unchanged at January 22, 2005.
• EB-3 ROW remains unchanged at June 1, 2002, EB-3 China moves forward by three months to June 1, 2002, while EB-3 India moves forward by one week to April 22, 2001.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001, except for India which moves forward by one week to April 22, 2001.

EB-2 Numbers Indicate Minor Movement

The October 2009 Visa Bulletin dates suggest a minor forward movement as follows:

• EB-2 China moves forward by a little over two (2) months from January 8, 2005 to March 22, 2005;
• EB-2 India moves forward  by two (2) weeks from January 8, 2005 to January 22, 2005; and
• EB-2 Rest of World (“ROW”) remains current.

EB-3 Visas Are Available Although Forward Movement May Be Slow

As expected, the October 2009 Visa Bulletin brings a number of changes.  Most notably, the EB-3 category is no longer unavailable and the visa cut-off dates are as listed below.  We also provide the visa cut-off dates from the April 2009 Visa Bulletin which was the last time EB-3 visas were available.

• EB-3 China has a cut-off date of February 22, 2002 (compared to March 1, 2003 in the April 2009 Visa Bulletin);
• EB-3 India has a cut-off date of April 15, 2001 (compared to November 1, 2001 in the April 2009 Visa Bulletin);
• EB-3 ROW has a cut-off date of June 1, 2002 (compared to March 1, 2003 in the April 2009 Visa Bulletin).

We have included a comparison with the April 2009 EB-3 visa numbers to illustrate that even though the State Department has made EB-3 visas available, the fact that the government chose to set cut-off dates in October 2009 which are earlier than the April 2009 cut-off dates indicates that a slow movement in EB-3 over the 2009 fiscal year is to be expected.

EB-5 Is Unavailable

The EB-5 category is now unavailable.  This is due to the expiration of the EB-5 Pilot program on September 30, 2009, which means that no visas can be issued after September 30 under the EB-5 category until Congress extends it.  Once this happens, the visa availability is expected to become current.

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains unchanged for all categories except as noted above for EB-2 China and India:  EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) is current, EB-2 China and EB-2 India are January 8, 2005.
• EB-3 is unavailable for all categories.
• Other worker visa numbers are also unavailable.

Based on the last few visa bulletins, visa availability during the final quarter of the fiscal year is likely to remain very limited as some employment-based categories approach or have already reached their annual numerical limits.

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains unchanged for all categories except as noted above for EB-2 China and India:  EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) is current, EB-2 China and EB-2 India are October 1, 2003.
• EB-3 is unavailable for all categories.
• Other worker visa numbers are also unavailable.

In one of the comments to the August 2009 Visa Bulletin, the State Department notes that the retrogression of EB-2 China has been necessary to take into account the high demand of visa issuances so far this fiscal year.   As a result, visa availability during the final quarter of the fiscal year is likely to remain very limited as some employment-based categories approach or have already reached their annual numerical limits.

Lower Unused Visa Numbers in EB-4 and EB-5.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, EB-4 and EB-5 have seen increased demand which may result in retrogression.  However, what is more important, the high demand of EB-4 and EB-5 has resulted in a fewer visa numbers being made available to other categories, such as EB-2 and EB-3.  This has resulted in an increased pressure on the visa numbers for EB-3, EB-2 and possibly EB-1 for China and India.

EB-1 Demand Increased; EB-1 China or India May See Retrogression.  Mr. Oppenheim noted that demand for EB-1 Rest of World (ROW) has increased but it expected to remain current until the end of FY2009.  However, EB-1 for China and India, while current for July 2009, may require the establishment of a cut-off date if EB-1 demand remains heavy.  This is important because EB-1 for China and India may no longer be the “instant concurrent-filing” category.  We urge our readers and clients from China or India who are considering EB-1 to consider filing as early as possible.

EB-2 China and India – “Grim” Prognosis; Long Delays Are Likely.  Mr. Oppenheim did not deliver good news for EB-2 China and India applicants.  The July 2009 cut-off date is January 1, 2009, and may become unavailable in August or September 2009.  There are reported 25,000 EB-2 India cases which have been reviewed by USCIS and are waiting at the Department of State for a visa number. By law, all countries have a limit of 2,800 EB-2 numbers per year plus any “fall across” and “fall down” numbers from EB-1, EB-4 or EB-5 categories or from the EB-2 category from other countries.  Therefore, and unfortunately, without legislative relief, the waiting time for Indian or Chinese EB-2 applicants may be measured in years, even decades.

EB-3 ROW.  The EB-3 will remain unavailable the remainder of this fiscal year. As the Department of Labor worked its way through the long backlog of Alien Labor Certification cases, there were tens of thousands of I-485 applications with priority dates in 2004 and earlier years which were processed by USCIS this year. The Department of State currently estimates that, as of October 1, 2009, the EB3 worldwide cut-off date will be March 1, 2003. There will be extended delays in this category.

EB-3 China, India and Mexico.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, EB-3 numbers for China, India and Mexico applicants will be unavailable for the remainder of the fiscal year.  Furthermore, it is estimated that, based on current demand for visa numbers that as of October 1, 2009, the following cut-off dates could be established: China will be March 1, 2003; India will be November 1, 2001; and Mexico will be March 1, 2003. These estimates are based on “current demand” in the first 7 ½ months of FY2009, and a lot could change between now and early September when October dates are established (meaning that these predicted cut-off dates may retrogress even more).

General Numbers Update.  Finally, Mr. Oppenheim provided some numbers on the cases pending at various stages of immigrant processing.  There are approximately 25,000 EB-2 and 25,000 EB-3 applications queued at the State Department awaiting visa numbers.  There are ~2.7 million family-based applicants on the waiting list for consular processing.  There also could be ~50,000 employment-based applicants on waiting lists for consular processing.

Conclusion.  The news from Mr. Oppenheim is not good.  Long delays and limits on some categories are to be expected.  Indian and Chinese applicants for EB-2 and EB-3 face years, even decades-long, wait period for a visa number.  EB-1 is also under pressure for Chinese and Indians.   We will continue monitoring the visa numbers and provide updates and reliable predictions as we counsel our clients on the best ways to avoid lengthy green card delays.

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains unchanged for all categories except as noted above for EB-2 China:  EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) is current, EB-2 China and EB-2 India are January 1, 2000.
• EB-3 is unavailable for all categories.
• Other worker visa numbers are also unavailable.

In one of the comments to the July 2009 Visa Bulletin, the State Department notes that the retrogression of EB-2 China has been necessary to take into account the high demand of visa issuances so far this fiscal year.   As a result, visa availability during the final quarter of the fiscal year is likely to remain very limited as some employment-based categories approach or have already reached their annual numerical limits.

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains unchanged for all categories except as noted above for EB-2 India:  EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) is current, EB-2 China remains February 15, 2005, and EB-2 India retrogressed to January 1, 2000.
• EB-3 is unavailable for all categories.
• Other worker visa numebers are also unavailable.

In one of the comments to the June 2009 Visa Bulletin, the State Department notes that “applicant demand for numbers, primarily for adjustment of status cases at Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, has been extremely heavy throughout the year.   As a result, visa availability during the final quarter could become limited as categories approach their annual numerical limits.”   At this point, it is not clear whether EB-2 will stay at January 1, 2000 for this month (June 2009) only or it will remain there for a few months due to the extremely heavy EB-2 India visa number demand.